The IEA delivered a surprisingly downbeat outlook for oil demand in its monthly market report, showing an expected slowdown in consumption that was at odds with a more bullish view from the producer group OPEC on Monday. Between 2017 and 2040, the IEA estimates that more solar power capacity will be added globally each year than any other source of energy, with an annual average increase of almost 70 gigawatts.
With big gains forecast in its output of shale oil, the United States is expected to become a net oil exporter by the mid-2020s, the IEA said, adding that the USA will account for 80 per cent of the increase in the global oil supply to 2025, which will maintain near-term downward pressure on prices.
Under the IEA's New Policies Scenario, based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions relative to emissions and climate change, the oil price should continue to rise toward $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s.
The energy agency said that oil production will be driven by continued growth in energy-hungry industries.
While the US exported 100 billion cubic metres of Canadian gas in 2005, that figure fell by over a fifth in 2016.
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With the US eating into Canada's prospective market share, the IEA believes Canada's liquefied natural gas export will likely not come to fruition until the 2030s - a decade longer than expected - even as LNG will usher in a "new global gas order".
According to the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook 2017, it's far too early "to write the obituary of oil".
Total energy demand is expected to grow by 30 percent by 2040 - and would be growing twice that without efforts to improve energy efficiencies.
"Asia's growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG (by 2040), with exports from the U.S. accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market", the IEA said.
Canada could still play a role as China's long-held fears for its energy security means it would seek to diversify its sources of supply.
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If planned pipeline projects come to fruition, the United States and Canada combined could export more than 700,000 bpd to China by 2040 - a drop in the barrel in the country's 15.5 million bpd demand.
"The IEA slashing its oil demand growth forecast for this year and the next has dampened some of the bullish sentiment prevailing in the market", Abhishek Kumar, Senior Energy Analyst at Interfax Energy's Global Gas Analytics in London.
"Next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.
After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday.
The oil market should be able to find a longer-term equilibrium, with the oil price in the range of $50-70 a barrel, the agency said.
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