"I think the market is waking up to the fact that [the increase] is not going to be enough to fill the looming supply gap", Flynn said. Trump said he hoped that the group would increase output substantially in a tweet on June 22, after the end of the ministerial gathering.
Britain's Barclays bank said OPEC's and Russia's commitments would take "the market from a -0.2 million bpd deficit in H2 2018 to a 0.2 million bpd surplus".
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Meanwhile, analysts surveyed Monday by S&P Global Platts were expecting U.S. crude stocks to have fallen 2.3 million barrels in the week ended June 22. Market prices popped on the news, but OPEC's plans to increase production limits are keeping prices weighed down for now.
And since not all countries in the OPEC and non-OPEC coalition have spare capacity, and those that increase production per the new agreement will lose their extra capacity, the market would be susceptible to any supply interruptions, according to Price Futures Group senior analyst Phil Flynn.
In contrast, WTI crude for August delivery added 34 cents to $68.92 a barrel. Total volume traded was more than double the 100-day average.
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The front-month Brent/WTI spread, which hit near three-year high in late May at more than $11/b, has since declined sharply to trade within a $5-$7/b range, settling at $6.65/b on Monday.
"Saturday's OPEC+ press conference provided more clarity on the decision to increase production, with guidance for a full 1 million bpd ramp-up in 2H18", Goldman said in a note on Sunday. We believe that the investors have over-reacted to the move, which has resulted in a rise in oil prices. That's a signal that exports from the Islamic Republic may fall much further, more quickly than expected.
Al-Falih went out of his way to give a detailed explanation of how the OPEC+ deal will work, clarifying a vaguely worded agreement and contradictory statements from other ministers that spurred a rally in Crude Oil futures Friday. The AAA, NPR reports, is actually upbeat about gas prices, expecting the beneficial effect of higher OPEC and Russian Federation production to make itself visible some time later, when the production increase actually starts.
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